The World Meteorological Organization says El Nino could become exceptionally strong, with tropical Pacific sea-surface temperatures forecast to reach about 3.8 degrees Celsius above average during November 2026 to January 2027.
The 3.8-degree figure is a forecast anomaly in the Nino 3.4 region of the tropical Pacific, not a prediction that air temperatures worldwide will rise by that amount. The seasonal outlook was published on 21 October 2026.
El Nino can shift rainfall and temperature patterns, but impacts vary by region.
What does the latest forecast say?
WMO forecasts the Nino 3.4 sea-surface temperature anomaly to reach about +3.8 degrees Celsius in November 2026 to January 2027, with warming expected to peak around December.
What could it mean for India and Telangana?
El Nino can raise the risk of deficient rainfall in parts of South Asia, but it does not determine rainfall in every district. The Indian Ocean Dipole, regional weather systems and rainfall timing also matter.
For Telangana, the practical implications will depend on the evolving monsoon outlook, local reservoir storage and district-level forecasts. El Niño alone does not establish that a drought will occur in the state.
Telangana declares 365 mandals drought-affected
A major development since this article was first published is the Telangana government’s G.O.Ms.No.03, Revenue (Disaster Management-II) Department, dated 24 October 2026. It declares 365 mandals across 31 districts drought-affected for Kharif 2026: 111 are classified as severe and 254 as moderate. The notification remains in force for six months from publication unless the government withdraws it earlier.
The order says the classification followed a multi-criteria assessment using rainfall and dry-spell data, crop-sown area, remote-sensing vegetation indicators, soil moisture and groundwater measures, alongside field verification. It attributes the state’s adverse monsoon conditions to strengthening El Niño conditions, weak Bay of Bengal low-pressure systems and prolonged dry spells. The declaration is therefore based on local agricultural and hydrological evidence, not on the global El Niño forecast alone.
How severe was the 2026 monsoon shortfall?
- Rainfall: Telangana received 615.5 mm from 1 June to 30 September, against a normal 740.6 mm — a 17% deficit.
- Districts: 18 of the state’s 33 districts recorded deficient rainfall.
- Kharif sown area: The order records a fall from 139.28 lakh acres to 126.06 lakh acres.
- Paddy: The cultivated area declined by 18%, from 69.19 lakh acres to 57 lakh acres.
- Reservoir storage: Live storage in major and medium reservoirs was recorded at 179.63 TMC against a combined capacity of 585 TMC.
What relief has the Telangana government ordered?
District authorities have been directed to arrange input subsidies through Direct Benefit Transfer, augment drinking-water supply, organise fodder and cattle camps where required, and generate rural employment under VB-G RAM G. Collectors have also been asked to take up agricultural-credit restructuring and non-coercive loan recovery with the State Level Bankers’ Committee, in line with applicable Reserve Bank of India guidelines.
Farmers should note an important condition in the order: the Agriculture and Cooperation Department is to disburse the input subsidy within one month after central assistance from the National Disaster Response Fund (NDRF) is received. The order does not mean that every affected farmer has already received a payment. Beneficiary lists are to be published on the respective district collectors’ websites and the state government’s website.
Read the government order: G.O.Ms.No.03 dated 24 October 2026 — declaration and annexure listing affected mandals.
Does the strong El Niño forecast mean Telangana will get less rain?
It raises a climate risk, but it is not a district-level rainfall prediction. The World Meteorological Organization’s 21 October outlook forecasts a Niño 3.4 sea-surface temperature anomaly of about +3.8°C for November 2026 to January 2027. That figure describes ocean temperatures in a defined part of the tropical Pacific; it does not mean air temperatures in Telangana will rise by 3.8°C.
WMO stresses that seasonal outlooks describe broad regional patterns and that national and regional forecasts are needed to identify local risks. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center said on 8 October that a strong-to-very-strong El Niño was likely through January–March 2027, while noting that impacts are not guaranteed. The next NOAA ENSO diagnostic discussion is scheduled for 12 November.
For residents and farmers, the practical guide is to follow current India Meteorological Department forecasts, district agriculture advisories and official reservoir and drinking-water notices. Do not treat a global El Niño headline as a precise prediction for a particular village or city.
What should farmers and Hyderabad residents watch now?
Farmers should check district-level advisories before deciding on rabi crops, irrigation and input purchases, and should use the district collector’s website for the notified mandal list and beneficiary information. Residents of Hyderabad can follow the latest drinking-water information separately; GAWAH has also explained where the city gets its water and how reservoir levels matter, as well as how to book an official HMWSSB water tanker.
Sources and official updates
- World Meteorological Organization: November 2026–January 2027 Global Seasonal Climate Update, 21 October 2026
- WMO: Global seasonal climate outlook and regional forecast caveats, 26 October 2026
- NOAA Climate Prediction Center: ENSO Diagnostic Discussion, 8 October 2026
- Government of Telangana: Government Orders portal
- India Meteorological Department: Hyderabad weather information
El Niño is a global climate driver, not a precise district-level forecast. Follow official IMD updates for local warnings.
Representative image: Photo by sunnie via Unsplash.
GAWAH News Desk
